Thursday, October 30, 2008
Timbang-timbang Saham CPO
Asteria
INILAH.COM, Jakarta – Harga komoditas dunia yang anjlok membuat saham berbasis perkebunan minyak kelapa sawit dihindari investor. Namun, berbagai sentimen masih perlu dicermati karena saham sektor ini masih memiliki potensi menarik.
Pada penutupan perdagangan Rabu (29/10), saham-saham perkebunan minyak kelapa sawit (CPO) terpantau bergerak variatif. Saham PT Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) menguat 100 poin ke level Rp 4.700, setelah sebelumnya terperosok jauh dari posisi awal Oktober di level Rp 10.000 dan di awal September di level Rp 18.200 per lembarnya.
Demikian juga saham PT London Sumatera Plantations (LSIP) terpantau naik 90 poin ke Rp 1.570, setelah awal Oktober bertengger di level Rp 2.675 dan awal September di level Rp 5.900.
Adapun saham PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantation (UNSP) tercatat terus melemah. Kemarin saham ini turun 20 poin ke level Rp 205, setelah awal Oktober di level Rp 460 dan awal September lalu masih bercokol di harga Rp 1.170 per lembar.
Secara keseluruhan sejak awal September hingga hari ini, saham UNSP anjlok paling parah yaitu mencapai 47,07%, diikuti AALI yang turun 28,7%, dan kemudian LSIP yang jatuh 27,8%. Jatuhnya saham CPO dipicu melorotnya harga minyak kelapa sawit di pasar internasional.
Harga CPO di Rotterdam untuk pengiriman November-Desember 2008, terpantau turun US$ 60 (12,1%) menjadi US$ 435 per ton. Padahal awal bulan ini saja, harga CPO masih di level US$ 675 per ton.
Analis Ikhsan Binarto mengatakan, harga CPO masih akan mengalami pelemahan karena merosotnya permintaan dunia sebagai dampak dari resesi. Namun, lanjutnya, yang lebih dikhawatirkan sebenarnya adalah penurunan demand CPO dari China akibat pelambatan ekonomi di negeri tirai bambu tersebut.
Pasalnya, produksi minyak kelapa sawit Indonesia lebih banyak diolah menjadi minyak sayur (cooking oil) yang menjadi konsumsi China. Sedangkan industri sawit Indonesia tidak banyak mengolah CPO menjadi biofuel yang banyak dikonsumsi negara besar seperti AS dan Eropa.
Penurunan harga komoditas pun berimbas pada kinerja perseroan. Lihat saja UNSP yang semula optimistis dapat mencapai target perseroan, mulai menunjukkan keraguannya.
Pada paparan publik beberapa waktu lalu, manajemen mengatakan kinerja perseroan pada kuartal IV 2008 akan melemah sehingga target laba bersih perseroan tahun 2008 sebesar Rp 600 miliar diperkirakan tidak tercapai. Adapun konsensus laba bersih UNSP untuk 2008 adalah Rp 504 miliar.
Sementara perusahaan perkebunan sawit LSIP melakukan pembelian kembali saham (buyback) untuk mendongkrak nilai sahamnya. LSIP menganggarkan dana Rp 627,7 miliar untuk buyback saham untuk membeli 3,145 juta unit senilai Rp 6,231 miliar. Jumlah maksimal saham yang akan dibeli kembali sebanyak 20%.
Adapun kinerja AALI pada kuartal ketiga 2008 menunjukkan peningkatan penjualan bersih 62,6% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun lalu menjadi Rp 6,7 triliun. Sedangkan laba bersih konsolidasi naik 65,6% menjadi Rp 2,1 triliun.
Kendati menunjukkan peningkatan, penjualan bersih AALI sebenarnya turun 13,4% dibanding kuartal kedua kemarin. Demikian juga laba bersih yang turun 30,9%. Hal ini disebabkan harga jual CPO kuartal ketiga ini yang merosot 15,2% menjadi Rp 7,285 dari sebelumnya Rp 8,587.
Namun, analis Kresna Graha Sekurindo Jordan Zulkarnaen mengatakan, sektor perkebunan CPO sebenarnya masih mengalami pertumbuhan di tengah perlambatan ekonomi.
Hal ini mengingat, minyak kelapa sawit adalah salah satu kebutuhan pokok energi atau energi alternatif primer pertama. “Demandnya masih akan terus ada, tidak pernah nol,” katanya.
Jordan memaparkan, pendapatan sektor ini masih bisa menunjukkan pertumbuhan karena ekspansi sudah dilakukan perseroan sejak 2006. Pendapat ini merujuk pada industri perkebunan kelapa sawit yang sudah beroperasi sejak generasi pertama, seperti AALI dan UNSP.
Kedua perusahaan ini ini sudah mempunyai landbank yang luas seiring gencarnya aksi akuisisi lahan, berlanjut pada peningkatan produksi. “Ini berarti, kalau harga CPO sekarang turun, ongkos produksi mereka masih relatif rendah. Sehingga profit marginnya masih ada,” paparnya.
Hal senada diungkapkan Analis IndoMitra Securities, David MJ Ferdinandus yang merekomendasi beli untuk AALI dan UNSP dengan target harga masing-masing Rp 4.700 dan Rp 200 per lembarnya. “Meskipun tergerus sentimen negatif dari penurunan harga CPO, kinerja perseroan masih cukup baik,” katanya.
Selain itu, kabar baik datang dari Pemerintah yang akhirnya menurunkan pungutan ekspor (PE) CPO menjadi nol persen per 1 November. Keputusan ini diambil pemerintah dan dicantumkan dalam 10 langkah mengatasi krisis. “Penurunan PE ini akan menggairahkan sektor CPO di tengah harga jual yang terus turun,” pungkas David. [E1]
source: inilah.com
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Astra Agro Raup Untung Rp 2,13 Triliun
TEMPO Interaktif, JakartaLaba Bersih Astra Agro Lestari Tbk Rp : Perusahaan perkebunan PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk hari ini melaporkan sampai kuartal ketiga 2008 berhasil membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp 2,13 triliun. Pencapaian ini meningkat 65,6 persen dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun 2007 sebesar Rp 1,29 triliun.
Dari laporan keuangan konsolidasi Astra Agro yang tidak diaudit sampai akhir September 2008, disebutkan penjualan bersih konsolidasi Astra Agro tercatat sebesar Rp 6,7 triliun, atau tumbuh 62,6 persen dibanding periode yang sama tahun 2007 sebesar Rp 4,12 triliun.
Widya Wiryawan, Presiden Direktur Astra Agro mengatakan, tingginya harga minyak sawit serta produk turunannya hingga kuartal ketiga telah mendorong pertumbuhan penghasilan perseroan. Harga rata-rata minyak sawit perseroan sampai kuartal ketiga Rp 7.995 per kilogram, atau naik 40,9 persen dibanding periode yang sama 2007 sebesar Rp 5.673 per kilogram.
Selain itu, pertumbuhan penghasilan juga dipicu naiknya volume penjualan minyak sawit perseroan seiring dengan peningkatan produksi minyak sawit. Penjualan minyak memberikan kontribusi penjualan terbesar yaitu 84,3 persen, sedangkan sisanya disumbangkan dari penjualan produk turunan minyak sawit dan lain-lain.
Seiring krisis keuangan global serta melemahnya permintaan pasar minyak sawit, memasuki kuartal keempat 2008 ini harga minyak sawit merosot. “Kondisi ini tentu saja mempengaruhi usaha perkebunan kelapa sawit,” kata Widya.
EFRI RITONGA
source: tempo.co.id
UPDATE 1-Indonesia's Astra Agro 9-mth net profit up 66 pct
Tue Oct 28, 2008 7:02am EDT
(Adds details, quote)
JAKARTA, Oct 28 (Reuters) - PT Astra Agro Lestari (AALI.JK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Indonesia's largest listed plantation firm, reported on Tuesday a 66 percent rise in nine-month net profit on the back of strong output and higher CPO prices.
Astra Agro, owned by Indonesia's largest automotive distributor, PT Astra International Tbk (ASII.JK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), reported a net profit of 2.13 trillion rupiah ($195.4 million) in January-September, compared to 1.29 trillion rupiah a year ago.
Sales rose 62.6 percent to 6.70 trillion rupiah, largely due to higher palm oil sales volumes.
"High CPO prices and its derivative products until the third quarter boosted the firm's revenue growth," Astra Agro's president director, Widya Wiryawan, said in a statement, adding that average CPO prices until September 2008 were 41 percent higher than the year-ago period.
"The firm's revenue growth was also contributed by higher CPO sales volume, which is in line with an increase in production," he said, adding lower CPO prices in the fourth quarter "would definitely affect palm oil plantations and farmers".
The company, which has a market capitalisation of $803 million, had said its crude palm oil sales volume climbed 14.6 percent to 735,497 tonnes in the January-September period.
Sales from crude palm oil contributed to around 84 percent of the company's total sales in the first nine month period of 2008.
Astra Agro, which accounts for about 5 percent of Indonesia's total crude palm oil production, benefited from soaring palm oil prices earlier this year.
But palm oil prices have fallen over 60 percent from an all time high of 4,486 ringgit a tonne hit in March.
Indonesia has overtaken Malaysia as the world's top palm oil producer. It is expected to produce 18.4 million tonnes of CPO this year, up around 7.5 percent from 2007.
The company is aiming to boost its output by 7.5 percent to 990,000 tonnes in 2008, on the back of better productivity and a larger plantation area. It is in the process of expanding its plantation area by 60,000-70,000 hectares by 2009. ($1 = 10,900 rupiah) ($1 = 3.578 Malaysian ringgit) (Reporting by Harry Suhartono and Andreas Ismar, editing by Sugita Katyal)
source: reuters.com
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Urgent action needed over Sumatran peat forest logging
Ian Wood reports on the loss of vitally important swamp forests in SumatraSumatra has had
more than its fair share of natural disasters over the last decade including the 2004 tsunami that killed over 190,000 people in the northern province of Aceh.- Conservation groups and government sign Sumatra forest deal
- New plans to protect native tigers and elephants in Sumatra
- Sumatran orang-utan now in serious decline
A recent study commissioned by the Swiss NGO PanEco has shown the peat is more than 3 metres deep over much of the area.
There are already laws in Indonesia that forbid the destruction of peat more than 3 metres deep but the local government seem powerless to protect this area.
The effects are threefold.
2) Subsequent drainage causes further degradation of the peat releasing even more CO2.
3) This then results in subsidence of the land itself of approx 5 cm per year. The area of Tripa is already at about sea level, or only slightly above, so within a very short space of time the sea will claim huge swathes of this region and inland communities will have no protection against future tsunamis.
The recent agreement to protect forests in Sumatra between the Indonesian government and a number of conservation groups including WWF and Fauna and Flora International is a step in the right direction. However to save Tripa from the unfolding disaster there needs to be urgent action immediately.
Pak Adnan, one of four of Aceh's Senators agreed to meet me in Tripa and together we witnessed scenes of total devastation. His concern seemed genuine as he explained the problems this region is facing.
"I have not seen any goodwill from central government to act to protect Tripa. Already I have discussed it with the executive but they have not taken any action" Pak Adnan told me.
"If necessary it must come from the President himself who has the power to stop the destruction of Tripa. The status of Tripa must be raised to that of protected forest and then it will be immortal forever. To achieve this it needs continued pressure from both local people and the international community.
There are five palm oil concessions that have been granted by the Indonesian central government with leases that expire in 2020. Such is the scale of logging here that the remaining tracts of forest will be long gone before then.
"Local people do not destroy the peat swamp forest as they do not have access to heavy machines but the palm oil companies have vast amounts of money," Pak Adnan told me.
"For local people we can create better sustainable sources of income such as fish breeding and livestock that fit in with the ecosystem. We could also create ecotourism opportunities and then at last the people that live in Tripa could have income from both palm oil and these other sources."
Surely this is preferable to increasing vulnerability to rising sea levels, which threatens not only communities and their livelihoods, but also the very palm oil estates themselves in the long run.
The palm oil company PT Astra Agro Lestari who are one of the main suppliers to Unilever, are running one of the legal concessions in Tripa. It covers nearly 13,000 hectares of which around 6000 hectares is still virgin rain forest, all located on peat swamp with an average depth of about 3m but reaching over 5m in places.
Unilever announced last month that they have committed to only purchasing 100 per cent sustainably produced palm oil by 2015. However, by then this important area of forest will have already been lost forever.
After cutting the larger trees in the peat swamp forest the remaining trees are set on fire. The palm oil companies then cut drainage canals across the site as the land is too wet for oil palm cultivation. The peat then starts to subside as it dries out and results in very poor conditions for palm oil trees to grow in.
We saw lots of palm oil trees that are now falling over and will be useless as future crops. When the peat has degraded and subsided to below sea level the whole area will be flooded with seawater and nothing will grow here again. There is also proof that the surrounding areas of non peat swamp provide far better conditions for palm oil.
"There is plenty of non-forested land on mineral soil in the surroundings of Tripa which is available and produces excellent conditions for oil palm cultivation. In fact some of the highest palm oil yields in the world are recorded in that region. Consequently the Tripa concessions could be relocated there." said Regina Frey.
The simple truth is that the palm oil companies want to sell the timber from the large trees they fell when they clear the land. In fact there are vast areas of already cleared land in Tripa that have not even been planted with palm oil.
Now is the time for action not words here in Tripa. To destroy one of the last great areas of peat swamp forest in Sumatra is an act of criminal vandalism. Along with orangutans these forests also contain two other rare ape species, the Siamang and the White Handed Gibbon along with Sumatran tigers, clouded leopards and sun bears.
Conflicts have developed between villagers and the palm oil companies. Such is the sensitivity that PT Astra Agro Lestari's concession is now guarded by the Indonesian police and army.
I managed to get into the village of Pulo Kruet where I met one of the leaders of the community. He told me that the palm oil companies are now taking the land that belongs to his village and they are powerless to prevent it.
We walked for several kilometres together through the palm oil plantations that now surround his home. Eventually we arrived at the border of the remaining forest and saw freshly made orangutan nests in the trees right on the edge of the destruction.
Here in Tripa the fight to save this critically endangered species is one with far reaching consequences for the human population.