Pelemahan Ekonomi India & China Tak Pengaruhi CPO RI

Selasa, 21 Oktober 2008 - 15:19 wib
Nuria - Okezone

JAKARTA - Departemen Perdagangan memastikan permintaan minyak mentah CPO di India dan China akan tetap tumbuh di tengah krisis finansial global. Optimisme tersebut karena pertumbuhan ekonomi kedua negara tersebut tetap tinggi meski telah direvisi.

"Pertumbuhan ekonomi India dan China tetap positif. Revisi pertumbuhannya tetap positif," kata Menteri Perdagangan Mari Elka Pangestu di sela jumpa pers mengenai The 23rd Trade Expo Indonesia 2008, Kemayoran, Jakarta, Selasa (21/10/2008).

Maka itu, Mendag menilai ekspor CPO tetap tinggi. Dengan jatuhnya harga CPO, namun permintaanya tetap tinggi."Harga komoditas seperti CPO memang anjlok tapi sensitifnya sedikit terhadap penurunan ekspor. Negara seperti India dan China masih memerlukan CPO," jelasnya. (rhs)

source: okezone.com

Financial Crisis Woes Add To Gloom At Malaysia-China Palm Oil Seminar

October 16, 2008 19:39 PM
By Tham Choy Lin
NANJING, Oct 16 (Bernama) -- Sentiment was bearish at the Malaysia-China Palm Oil Seminar 2008 which opened here Thursday as Asian stock markets and crude oil price took another dive in heightened fears of a global recession following poor retail sales numbers from the United States.
Traders attending the two-day seminar came largely to get a better grip of fluctuating prices and the direction of China, the world's largest oils and fats consumer and a key importer of Malaysian palm oil.
Malaysia Palm Oil Council (MPOC) chief executive officer Tan Sri Dr Yusof Basiron, an industry veteran, was sanguine of the outlook for palm oil which had dipped below RM1,800 per tonne.
"The price outlook is very much linked to petroluem prices, that's out of our control but what we can do is to manage the price volatility and supply equation. Once the supply expansion gets back to normal rate, it is a factor of time before the market corrects itself," he told Bernama on the sidelines of the seminar.
The Malaysian government will consider on Oct 21 a proposal to blend up to five percent of palm oil with diesel for use by public transport to shore up the price which has nosedived from a record of over RM4000 per tonne in March to less than half.
Yusof said if approved, the move would trim the country's current palm oil stock of 1.92 million tonnes by between 200,000 tonnes to 5000,000 tonnes.
"This will create a new demand for palm oil and it will offset any big shocks developing and stabilise prices. Before this, our palm oil was not used much for biodiesel and it tends to be traded at a discount even to petroluem," he said.
A commodity broker, who declined to be named, said that the market was leaning towards more downside.
"Consumers are standing on the sidelines and over the past few months, I have not sealed any significant contracts," he said.
Tracing the downward spiral, Martin Bek-Nielsen, executive director of United Plantations Bhd, among Malaysia's industry giants, said the build-up of palm oil stocks, to reach 2.2 million tonnes, from high production this year, had led to concerns that the high prices could not be sustained.
Adding to the pressure was the appreciation of the US dollar, falling price of crude oil and now, the international financial crisis which clipped the possibility of a sustaining level or a rebound after falling through the RM2,000 mark.
"The financial crisis and meltdown of the stock markets has instill such a fear in the minds of people, hedge funds were slaughtered and the general market sentiment is so bearish," Bek-Nielsen said.
He said the crisis had dashed the possibility of the price returning to a sustainable level or by now, a rebound after falling through the RM2,000 mark.
With Wednesday's closing price of RM1,749 and the limit down on soy oil trading, Bek-Nielsen said the price may shed further to the RM1,600 region and he expects it would eventually improved in light of a downturn in supply following the high production this year.
But it would take it another half or one year to see another big appreciation, he said.
"At the end of the day if the financial crisis is as bad as people anticipate, we should be in a period of low price levels until the world economy show signs of improvement," he added.
The seminar, held for the second time since 2006, is organised in tandem with the China International Conference of Seed Crushers.
Nineteen Malaysian companies, including industry players like Sime Darby and Felda, as well as Bursa Malaysia, which is the benchmark in palm oil futures, are taking part.
-- BERNAMA
source: bernama.com.my

Harga TBS Sawit Diperkirakan Terus Merosot

Kamis, 16 Oktober 2008 06:22 WIB
BENGKULU--MI: Harga kelapa sawit (tandan buah segar-TBS) diperkirakan akan terus turun menyusul anjloknya harga minyak sawit mentah (crude palm oil-CPO) di pasar dunia.
"Perkiraan kita pakan depan harga TBS akan turun lagi hingga pada kisaran Rp550/Kg di tingkat pabrik/perusahaan," kata Dayari, perwakilan dari PT Bio Nusantara, sebuah perusahaan pekebunan sawit swasta, saat rapat membahas harga TBS bersama Pemerintah Provinsi (Pemprov) Bengkulu, Rabu (15/10).
Ia menjelaskan, harga CPO saat ini masih pada posisi Rp4.285 Kg, namun sudah ada yang menawar lebih rendah yakni berkisar Rp3.600-Rp3.700/Kg. Rendahnya penawaran itu menjadi indikasi harga CPO akan terus turun. Jika harga CPO turun, kata dia, maka harga TBS pun dengan sendirinya akan ikut turun.
Direktur Kebun PT Agricinal, Dapot Sitompul juga menyatakan hal yang sama, terkait harga CPO dan TBS itu. Menurut dia, penurunan harga CPO di pasar dunia itu tidak terlepas dari terjadinya krisis keuangan di Amerika Serikat.
Sitompul juga mengeluhkan, kualias TBS yang berasal dari perkebunan petani setempat.
"Masyarakat kadang menjual TBS asal saja, banyak diantaranya yang sudah busuk, sehingga mempengaruhi kulitas CPO. Kita dari perusahaan kadang serba salah," katanya.
Harga beli TBS oleh perusahaan perkebunan di daerah itu dari para petani saat ini bervariasi. Harga pembelian tertinggi diberikan oleh PT Agricinal yakni Rp730/Kg,kemudian PT Bio Nusantara Rp670/Kg, PT Puding Mas Rp660/Kg, PT Daria DharmaPratama Rp650/Kg dan PT Agri Andalas Rp600/Kg.
Kelapa sawit merupakan komiditi andalan Provinsi Bengkulu. Luas perkebunan sawit di daerah itu sekitar 150 ribu hakter (Ha), dan 90.898 Ha di antaranya milik masyarakat, sisanya dikelola oleh perusahaan baik BUMN maupun swasta.
Pemerintah Provinsi Bengkulu juga akan melaksanakan program revitalisasi perkebunan kelapa sawit seluas 60 ribu Ha, dalam dua tahap. Tahap awal seluas 23 ribu Ha segera direalisasikan dengan pembiayaan berasal dari Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) sebesar Rp621 miliar, dengan asumsi biaya Rp27 juta per Ha. (Ant/OL-02)
source: mediaindonesia.com

The China factor in Indonesian commodities exports

Following the collapse of the financial sectors in the U.S. and Europe, fear of a global economic slowdown has begun to spread. In spite of measures taken by the U.S. and European governments to help their financial sectors, the threat of a global recession remains prominent.
This will result in the continued decline of prices of oil and other commodities due to slower demand.
The commodity bulls at the beginning of the year made many believe Asia could decouple itself from the U.S. slowdown, propelled by China and India. China's strong GDP growth, which has been consistently in the double digits since the beginning of 2006, supported the theory.
However, the train of thought was derailed when China reported a decline in growth this year.
China has strong ties to the U.S. and EU economies as both account for approximately 40 percent of China's total exports. An economic slowdown in both regions will undoubtedly negatively impact the Chinese economy.
China's GDP growth declined from its peak of 12.6 percent recorded in the second quarter 2007 to 9.5 percent in the third quarter of this year, the worst fall since 2004.
China's economic slowdown will damage Indonesian exports, which account for some 28 percent of our national GDP. The slowdown will more significantly impact Indonesia's listed plantation and metal mining companies, because they produce CPO, nickel and tin.
Indonesia exports two thirds of its CPO production, and nearly almost all of its nickel ore and tin output.
It is worth noting that China is not only the world's biggest importer of CPO, tin and nickel but also Indonesia's major export destination for those commodities.
A Chinese slowdown will be a key factor in further pressuring CPO prices as the country is the largest importer of CPO (6.2 million tons), or 19 percent of the world's CPO imports.
For most Indonesian publicly listed plantation companies, their exports as a percentage of total sales declined significantly to below 10 percent in the first half of this year from more than 25 percent in 2007.
This was a result of the increased export tax coupled with lower demand.
However, good weather thus far this year has resulted in high CPO output, creating an oversupply situation. Supply from Malaysia and Indonesia has been reported to be higher than expected, at more than 2 million tons.
Subsequently, the price of CPO has declined 41 percent from last year and more than 70 percent from its peak of US$1,400 per ton in March this year.
Nickel's astonishing growth in 2006 and 2007 has pared off from its peak of $54,000 per ton in mid 2007, which coincided with China's peak economic growth. Indonesia exported more than 60 percent of its nickel ore to China last year.
The boom in the price of nickel is considered a result of the industrial growth in China, which was partly driven by the country's Olympic Games projects.
Demand for nickel has dissipated of late as many stainless steel firms are reducing their output due to diminishing demand.
We believe the London Olympics will not prove a main driver for nickel and other metals.
China spent a record $44 billion on the Beijing Olympics, while London already has much of the necessary infrastructure in place.
A decline in Indonesia's tin production is in the offing in our view given that 95 percent of the country's output is exported to China and Japan. China is the world's biggest consumer of tin, accounting for some 36 percent of the world's consumption.
Tin solders are widely used to join electrical circuits for swiftly developing consumer electronic goods, such as TVs, cameras, mobile phones and computers.
The global economic slowdown will definitively reduce consumer spending on discretionary products such as electronic goods.
This would lead to lower demand for electronics, which will in turn lower demand for tin as 52 percent of total tin consumption is used for soldering.
Anticipating lower demand from China and other export markets, Indonesia must focus on fully utilizing its domestic demand consumption capability. For CPO, both the Malaysian and Indonesian governments have joined forces to increase biodiesel production and usage.
Indonesia has mandated industrial users to ensure that 2.5 percent of the fuel they consume is biodiesel. This policy is expected to increase demand for CPO amid lower demand from the overseas market.
However, the situation for the metal market is different. It is not that easy to increase domestic consumption of nickel and tin since we do not have a strong metal manufacturing base that can consume excess output.
Therefore, it may be the right time for the government to build a downstream industry for both metals, allowing Indonesia to increase profit margin for export of the commodity compared to exporting the metal in block or ore form.
In conclusion, Indonesia should be able to maximize its domestic potential and find solutions to alleviate lower export demand amid the current global financial crisis and liquidity crunch.
The writer is a research analyst at Bahana Securities
Source: The Jakarta Post (Oct 15,2008), Achmad Syafriel, Analyst,